Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.0% vs 53.3%). Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 54.9% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.8% vs Kesler 52.9% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 62.0%
Defensive zone
Kesler 70.0%
Neutral zone
Kesler 52.8%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 63.6%
36.4%
63.6%
Duchene
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Duchene
Kesler
Last 5: Duchene 4-1 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Kesler
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
1
Duchene
Kesler
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,112)
55.2% (567)
-2.6%
Power Play
56.0% (193)
54.9% (51)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (49)
45.0% (131)
+4.0%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Duchene is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (481).
Duchene shoots left. Kesler is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Home / Away
Duchene
Kesler
Home
55.7% (652)
55.7% (388)
Away
50.4% (702)
50.8% (362)
By Period
Duchene
Kesler
P1
51.4%
56.3%
P2
53.9%
52.5%
P3
53.3%
52.6%
OT
55.6%
35.3%
Final 5 min
51.3%
60.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
53.0%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
53.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2018 | 3 | 17:58 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2018 | 3 | 08:01 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 1, 2018 | 3 | 02:38 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2018 | 1 | 18:12 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2018 | 1 | 01:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |