Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 41 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Kesler 55.9% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 65-59 in 124 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 65.4%
Defensive zone
Kesler 66.6%
Neutral zone
Kesler 53.7%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Duchene
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
65
-
59
(124 meetings)
65
59
Duchene
Kesler
Last 10: Duchene 6-4 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
28
13
Duchene
Kesler
41 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
17
28
Duchene
Kesler
45 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
20
18
Duchene
Kesler
38 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
56.4% (8,095)
-2.5%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
60.7% (1,437)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
50.5% (1,908)
-1.4%
On power play, Kesler has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Duchene shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Home / Away
Duchene
Kesler
Home
55.6% (6,411)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Duchene
Kesler
P1
54.5%
56.5%
P2
54.5%
55.9%
P3
53.4%
56.1%
OT
56.3%
46.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2019 | 2 | 17:22 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 2 | 14:30 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 2 | 06:27 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 1 | 17:56 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 1 | 17:53 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 1, 2018 | 3 | 17:58 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2018 | 3 | 08:01 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 1, 2018 | 3 | 02:38 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2018 | 1 | 18:12 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2018 | 1 | 01:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 31, 2017 | 2 | 00:38 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 31, 2017 | 1 | 19:56 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 31, 2017 | 1 | 13:29 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 3 | 19:03 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 2 | 13:37 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 2 | 12:15 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 1 | 16:27 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 1 | 08:01 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 12, 2017 | 3 | 15:18 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 12, 2017 | 3 | 06:28 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |