Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 53.5%). Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (61% H2H, 28 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Bozak 53.4% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 42-32 in 74 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 58.4%
Defensive zone
Bozak 50.6%
Neutral zone
Duchene 57.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Duchene
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
42
-
32
(74 meetings)
42
32
Duchene
Bozak
Last 10: Duchene 5-5 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
17
11
Duchene
Bozak
28 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
8
9
Duchene
Bozak
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
17
12
Duchene
Bozak
29 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (10,249)
53.7% (9,596)
+0.3%
Power Play
56.9% (1,620)
55.2% (1,990)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (467)
48.0% (1,094)
+1.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,422).
Duchene shoots left. Bozak is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,417).
Home / Away
Duchene
Bozak
Home
55.6% (6,270)
56.0% (6,333)
Away
52.7% (6,090)
51.0% (6,396)
By Period
Duchene
Bozak
P1
54.5%
53.2%
P2
54.5%
52.8%
P3
53.4%
54.5%
OT
55.9%
52.9%
Final 5 min
53.8%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
54.2%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 13:27 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 3 | 15:18 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 3 | 12:14 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 3 | 06:35 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 3 | 06:32 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 3 | 10:25 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 2 | 14:11 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 13:16 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 08:21 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 12:02 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 2 | 17:57 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 2 | 14:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 1 | 03:21 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 10, 2018 | 2 | 00:29 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 3 | 18:18 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 3 | 12:15 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 3 | 12:02 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 3 | 06:20 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 04:50 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 03:08 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |