Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 58.1% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.8% vs Bozak 46.2% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 87.0%
Defensive zone
Bozak 75.7%
Neutral zone
Bozak 50.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Duchene
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Duchene
Bozak
Last 5: Duchene 3-2 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Bozak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
2
Duchene
Bozak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (162)
46.7% (338)
+0.2%
Power Play
73.2% (56)
50.0% (6)
+23.2%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
32.6% (43)
+67.4%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +67.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Duchene is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Duchene shoots left. Bozak is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (247).
Home / Away
Duchene
Bozak
Home
58.4% (125)
47.9% (194)
Away
48.4% (95)
42.5% (193)
By Period
Duchene
Bozak
P1
56.9%
40.2%
P2
52.5%
51.4%
P3
51.9%
43.1%
OT
80.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 13:27 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 3 | 15:18 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 3 | 12:14 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 3 | 06:35 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 3 | 06:32 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |