Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 50.4% vs Bozak 54.3% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Bozak 55.0%
Defensive zone
Bozak 77.1%
Neutral zone
Bozak 51.8%
Result
Tyler Bozak favored at 60.3%
39.7%
60.3%
Duchene
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Duchene
Bozak
Last 10: Duchene 7-3 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
1
2
Duchene
Bozak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Bozak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
0
Duchene
Bozak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (1,070)
54.2% (962)
-3.7%
Power Play
49.3% (136)
57.9% (266)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (20)
52.1% (188)
-2.1%
On power play, Bozak has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Duchene is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (349).
Duchene shoots left. Bozak is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (922).
Home / Away
Duchene
Bozak
Home
49.8% (633)
58.6% (732)
Away
51.1% (613)
50.5% (709)
By Period
Duchene
Bozak
P1
51.0%
54.1%
P2
51.5%
55.0%
P3
49.1%
54.1%
OT
36.8%
65.2%
Final 5 min
53.2%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
50.4%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 2 | 13:15 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 2 | 11:51 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 2 | 02:02 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 2 | 00:20 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 2 | 00:16 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 1 | 02:50 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 1 | 02:43 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |