Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 50.3% vs Bozak 48.8% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 59.8%
Defensive zone
Bozak 52.3%
Neutral zone
Duchene 64.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 58.0%
58.0%
42.0%
Duchene
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Duchene
Bozak
Last 8: Duchene 6-2 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
0
Duchene
Bozak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Bozak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
2
Duchene
Bozak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (933)
48.8% (1,036)
+0.6%
Power Play
58.7% (104)
53.8% (225)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
39.1% (138)
+8.5%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Duchene is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Duchene shoots left. Bozak is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (916).
Home / Away
Duchene
Bozak
Home
51.9% (534)
50.8% (608)
Away
48.7% (524)
47.0% (791)
By Period
Duchene
Bozak
P1
51.0%
48.0%
P2
48.8%
48.1%
P3
50.6%
49.8%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.2%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
50.3%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2014 | 3 | 15:58 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 8, 2013 | 3 | 17:45 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 8, 2013 | 3 | 15:45 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 8, 2013 | 3 | 14:37 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 8, 2013 | 3 | 12:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 8, 2013 | 1 | 19:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 8, 2013 | 1 | 11:22 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 8, 2013 | 1 | 09:32 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |