Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Duchene wins 62.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.3% vs Bozak 54.3% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 73.8%
Defensive zone
Bozak 71.8%
Neutral zone
Duchene 58.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 69.9%
69.9%
30.1%
Duchene
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Duchene
Bozak
Last 8: Duchene 5-3 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
2
Duchene
Bozak
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Bozak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (579)
57.3% (483)
-1.3%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
57.5% (73)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (8)
42.3% (104)
-17.3%
On penalty kill, Bozak has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Duchene is 62.7% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Duchene shoots left. Bozak is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Home / Away
Duchene
Bozak
Home
54.9% (375)
57.8% (332)
Away
57.5% (320)
52.1% (328)
By Period
Duchene
Bozak
P1
58.3%
52.7%
P2
56.7%
55.6%
P3
53.1%
56.7%
OT
62.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.1%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2020 | 3 | 10:25 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 2 | 14:11 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 13:16 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 08:21 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 12:02 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 2 | 17:57 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 2 | 14:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 1 | 03:21 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |