Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Rask shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Rask 50.1% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 15-5 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 71.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 85.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 74.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 76.6%
76.6%
23.4%
Duchene
Rask
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
5
(20 meetings)
15
5
Duchene
Rask
Last 10: Duchene 10-0 Rask
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
6
0
Duchene
Rask
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
5
0
Duchene
Rask
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rask
4
5
Duchene
Rask
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Rask
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (10,249)
50.0% (4,428)
+4.0%
Power Play
56.9% (1,620)
54.3% (363)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (467)
35.2% (54)
+14.1%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rask shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (7,938).
Duchene shoots left. Rask is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,102).
Home / Away
Duchene
Rask
Home
55.6% (6,270)
52.0% (2,380)
Away
52.7% (6,090)
48.3% (2,465)
By Period
Duchene
Rask
P1
54.5%
50.7%
P2
54.5%
48.9%
P3
53.4%
50.7%
OT
55.9%
52.1%
Final 5 min
53.8%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
54.2%
Rask
60.0%▲
49.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2019 | 1 | 12:37 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 03:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 2 | 16:25 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 2 | 03:40 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2017 | 2 | 00:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2017 | 1 | 13:18 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2017 | OT | 03:58 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 3 | 06:38 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 1 | 07:13 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Oct 21, 2015 | 3 | 12:16 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Oct 21, 2015 | 1 | 14:41 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2015 | 1 | 09:29 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 3 | 13:19 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 3 | 00:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Nov 22, 2014 | 2 | 09:20 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 22, 2014 | 1 | 09:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |