Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 60.9% vs left-shot opponents — Rask shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 61.5% vs Rask 49.8% (+12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 61.0%
Defensive zone
Duchene 93.0%
Neutral zone
Duchene 79.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 78.3%
78.3%
21.7%
Duchene
Rask
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Duchene
Rask
Last 8: Duchene 7-1 Rask
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Rask
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Rask
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
1
Duchene
Rask
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Rask
Edge
Even Strength
62.2% (802)
48.7% (809)
+13.5%
Power Play
67.3% (153)
60.0% (90)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
59.4% (143)
47.4% (19)
+12.0%
On even strength, Duchene has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rask shoots left. Duchene is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Duchene shoots left. Rask is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (582).
Home / Away
Duchene
Rask
Home
66.5% (555)
51.4% (420)
Away
58.6% (543)
48.4% (498)
By Period
Duchene
Rask
P1
63.2%
49.1%
P2
59.6%
50.2%
P3
65.0%
50.3%
OT
71.4%
41.7%
Final 5 min
65.9%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
62.6%
Rask
60.0%▲
49.5%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2017 | 2 | 00:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2017 | 1 | 13:18 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2017 | OT | 03:58 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 3 | 06:38 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 1 | 07:13 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Victor Rask |