Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +12.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Sobotka on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 60.9% vs left-shot opponents — Sobotka shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 61.5% vs Sobotka 50.0% (+12.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sobotka 55.6%
Defensive zone
Duchene 78.2%
Neutral zone
Sobotka 52.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
Duchene
Sobotka
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Duchene
Sobotka
Last 6: Duchene 3-3 Sobotka
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sobotka
0
3
Duchene
Sobotka
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Sobotka
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Sobotka
Edge
Even Strength
62.2% (802)
60.0% (5)
+2.2%
Power Play
67.3% (153)
42.9% (7)
+24.4%
On power play, Duchene has a +24.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sobotka shoots left. Duchene is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Duchene shoots left. Sobotka is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (7).
Home / Away
Duchene
Sobotka
Home
66.5% (555)
50.0% (12)
Away
58.6% (543)
0.0% (0)
By Period
Duchene
Sobotka
P1
63.2%
40.0%
P2
59.6%
60.0%
P3
65.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
65.9%
100.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
62.6%
Sobotka
50.0%▼
52.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2017 | 2 | 16:47 | Offensive | Vladimir Sobotka |
| Apr 9, 2017 | 2 | 07:31 | Offensive | Vladimir Sobotka |
| Apr 9, 2017 | 2 | 07:28 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 9, 2017 | 1 | 10:18 | Offensive | Vladimir Sobotka |
| Apr 9, 2017 | 1 | 09:59 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 9, 2017 | 1 | 02:57 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |