Scouting Report
Jesse Winchester holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Winchester 52.5% vs Ellis 48.5% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Winchester 52.0%
Defensive zone
Winchester 65.0%
Neutral zone
Winchester 59.7%
Result
Jesse Winchester favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Winchester
Ellis
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Winchester
Ellis
Last 5: Winchester 3-2 Ellis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Winchester
Ellis
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Winchester
1
0
Winchester
Ellis
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Winchester
Ellis
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Winchester
Ellis
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (177)
48.0% (223)
+7.9%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
0.0% (1)
+66.7%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (54)
50.0% (20)
-3.7%
On power play, Winchester has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ellis shoots left. Winchester is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (168).
Winchester shoots right. Ellis is 39.8% vs right-shot opponents (83).
Home / Away
Winchester
Ellis
Home
57.1% (98)
51.4% (107)
Away
51.1% (137)
45.3% (137)
By Period
Winchester
Ellis
P1
44.6%
46.7%
P2
59.3%
47.3%
P3
55.9%
50.8%
Final 5 min
51.6%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Winchester
44.0%▼
50.5%
53.6%
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2011 | 3 | 18:08 | Offensive | Jesse Winchester |
| Nov 11, 2011 | 3 | 04:11 | Defensive | Jesse Winchester |
| Nov 11, 2011 | 1 | 02:09 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 2 | 10:39 | Neutral | Jesse Winchester |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 1 | 07:39 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |