Scouting Report
Matt Ellis holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Ellis on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Ellis wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Raffl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ellis 49.2% vs Raffl 47.7% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Raffl 73.9%
Defensive zone
Ellis 74.3%
Neutral zone
Ellis 59.6%
Result
Matt Ellis favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Ellis
Raffl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Ellis
Raffl
Last 7: Ellis 5-2 Raffl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ellis
Raffl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
3
0
Ellis
Raffl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Ellis
Raffl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ellis
Raffl
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (170)
44.0% (91)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (35)
75.0% (4)
-35.0%
On penalty kill, Raffl has a +35.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Raffl shoots left. Ellis is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (125).
Ellis shoots left. Raffl is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (64).
Home / Away
Ellis
Raffl
Home
47.8% (113)
42.5% (40)
Away
50.0% (92)
47.4% (57)
By Period
Ellis
Raffl
P1
61.3%
48.6%
P2
45.9%
39.5%
P3
35.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.0%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
48.8%
Raffl
56.0%▲
50.5%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2015 | 3 | 12:29 | Neutral | Michael Raffl |
| Feb 15, 2015 | 2 | 11:15 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Feb 15, 2015 | 1 | 15:23 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 3 | 16:32 | Offensive | Michael Raffl |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 2 | 15:15 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 1 | 09:38 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 1 | 03:02 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |