Scouting Report
Michael Raffl holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Ellis on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ellis 46.8% vs Raffl 49.7% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Raffl 86.3%
Defensive zone
Ellis 51.2%
Neutral zone
Raffl 63.6%
Result
Michael Raffl favored at 63.7%
36.3%
63.7%
Ellis
Raffl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Ellis
Raffl
Last 7: Ellis 5-2 Raffl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ellis
Raffl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
3
0
Ellis
Raffl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Ellis
Raffl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ellis
Raffl
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (607)
49.1% (597)
-1.8%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
48.1% (27)
-19.5%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (95)
58.5% (41)
-16.4%
On power play, Raffl has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Raffl shoots left. Ellis is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (460).
Ellis shoots left. Raffl is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (438).
Home / Away
Ellis
Raffl
Home
48.5% (303)
51.1% (305)
Away
44.8% (406)
48.3% (360)
By Period
Ellis
Raffl
P1
50.0%
51.6%
P2
46.2%
48.4%
P3
41.3%
49.2%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
42.4%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
46.4%
Raffl
56.0%▲
50.5%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2015 | 3 | 12:29 | Neutral | Michael Raffl |
| Feb 15, 2015 | 2 | 11:15 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Feb 15, 2015 | 1 | 15:23 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 3 | 16:32 | Offensive | Michael Raffl |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 2 | 15:15 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 1 | 09:38 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 1 | 03:02 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |