Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ellis 44.7% vs Backlund 47.7% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ellis 57.3%
Defensive zone
Ellis 55.5%
Neutral zone
Ellis 57.4%
Result
Matt Ellis favored at 56.7%
56.7%
43.3%
Ellis
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Ellis
Backlund
Last 6: Ellis 2-4 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
2
Ellis
Backlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ellis
Backlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Ellis
Backlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ellis
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (129)
47.2% (1,002)
-5.3%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
46.7% (150)
-46.7%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (34)
50.0% (170)
-5.9%
On power play, Backlund has a +46.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Ellis is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (114).
Ellis shoots left. Backlund is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Ellis
Backlund
Home
39.6% (53)
48.3% (633)
Away
42.5% (113)
46.7% (689)
By Period
Ellis
Backlund
P1
40.7%
49.2%
P2
46.0%
48.9%
P3
34.9%
45.4%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
36.1%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
41.6%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2014 | 3 | 09:12 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 2 | 12:23 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 2 | 02:43 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 1 | 07:11 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 1 | 07:01 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 14, 2013 | 2 | 17:22 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |