Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ellis 46.8% vs Backlund 49.0% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 53.7%
Defensive zone
Backlund 56.2%
Neutral zone
Ellis 54.3%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 52.7%
47.3%
52.7%
Ellis
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Ellis
Backlund
Last 8: Ellis 4-4 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
2
Ellis
Backlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
2
1
Ellis
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Ellis
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ellis
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (607)
49.7% (13,410)
-2.4%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
51.6% (1,336)
-23.0%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (95)
44.0% (2,446)
-1.9%
On power play, Backlund has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Ellis is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (460).
Ellis shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (10,953).
Home / Away
Ellis
Backlund
Home
48.5% (303)
49.7% (8,565)
Away
44.8% (406)
48.3% (8,632)
By Period
Ellis
Backlund
P1
50.0%
48.5%
P2
46.2%
50.3%
P3
41.3%
48.4%
OT
100.0%
44.1%
Final 5 min
42.4%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
46.4%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2015 | 3 | 13:17 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Jan 27, 2015 | 2 | 08:08 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 3 | 09:12 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 2 | 12:23 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 2 | 02:43 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 1 | 07:11 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 1 | 07:01 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 14, 2013 | 2 | 17:22 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |