Scouting Report
Nazem Kadri holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Ellis on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ellis 46.8% vs Kadri 48.7% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 68.2%
Defensive zone
Ellis 65.8%
Neutral zone
Ellis 56.2%
Result
Matt Ellis favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
Ellis
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Ellis
Kadri
Last 9: Ellis 4-5 Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
0
2
Ellis
Kadri
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
3
1
Ellis
Kadri
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kadri
1
2
Ellis
Kadri
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ellis
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (607)
48.2% (12,510)
-0.9%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
53.0% (1,892)
-24.4%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (95)
41.0% (293)
+1.1%
On power play, Kadri has a +24.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. Ellis is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (460).
Ellis shoots left. Kadri is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (9,379).
Home / Away
Ellis
Kadri
Home
48.5% (303)
49.1% (7,467)
Away
44.8% (406)
48.1% (7,231)
By Period
Ellis
Kadri
P1
50.0%
49.2%
P2
46.2%
48.8%
P3
41.3%
48.0%
OT
100.0%
49.0%
Final 5 min
42.4%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
46.4%
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2015 | 3 | 16:40 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 3 | 16:46 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 3 | 04:02 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 2 | 16:25 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 2 | 04:55 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 1 | 18:07 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 1 | 14:55 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 1 | 01:43 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Jan 29, 2013 | 2 | 08:02 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |