Scouting Report
Matt Ellis holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Costa on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ellis wins 39.8% vs right-shot opponents — Costa shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ellis 48.5% vs Costa 41.5% (+11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Costa 67.4%
Defensive zone
Ellis 56.5%
Neutral zone
Ellis 56.2%
Result
Matt Ellis favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Ellis
Costa
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Ellis
Costa
Last 6: Ellis 3-3 Costa
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
1
0
Ellis
Costa
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Costa
1
3
Ellis
Costa
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ellis
1
0
Ellis
Costa
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ellis
Costa
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (223)
37.3% (142)
+10.7%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
32.3% (31)
-32.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (20)
66.7% (3)
-16.7%
On power play, Costa has a +32.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Costa shoots right. Ellis is 39.8% vs right-shot opponents (83).
Ellis shoots left. Costa is 33.8% vs left-shot opponents (133).
Home / Away
Ellis
Costa
Home
51.4% (107)
40.5% (79)
Away
45.3% (137)
33.7% (98)
By Period
Ellis
Costa
P1
46.7%
38.6%
P2
47.3%
39.2%
P3
50.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.9%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Costa
44.0%▬
43.5%
36.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2011 | 2 | 12:27 | Defensive | Stephane Da Costa |
| Nov 11, 2011 | 1 | 11:19 | Defensive | Stephane Da Costa |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 2 | 02:51 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 2 | 02:44 | Defensive | Stephane Da Costa |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 1 | 11:26 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 1 | 05:57 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |