Matt Ellis vs Stephane Da Costa
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Matt Ellis holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Costa on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ellis wins 35.7% vs right-shot opponents — Costa shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ellis 46.8% vs Costa 43.5% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Costa 76.5%
Defensive zone
Ellis 68.9%
Neutral zone
Ellis 58.1%
Result
Matt Ellis favored at 59.6%
59.6%
40.4%
Ellis
Costa
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Ellis
Costa
Last 6: Ellis 3-3 Costa
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
1
0
Ellis
Costa
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Costa
1
3
Ellis
Costa
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ellis
1
0
Ellis
Costa
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ellis
Costa
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (607)
41.9% (279)
+5.4%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
39.7% (58)
-11.1%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (95)
66.7% (3)
-24.6%
On penalty kill, Costa has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Costa shoots right. Ellis is 35.7% vs right-shot opponents (249).
Ellis shoots left. Costa is 40.0% vs left-shot opponents (235).
Home / Away
Ellis
Costa
Home
48.5% (303)
46.6% (148)
Away
44.8% (406)
37.8% (193)
By Period
Ellis
Costa
P1
50.0%
39.3%
P2
46.2%
45.5%
P3
41.3%
41.9%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
42.4%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
46.4%
Costa
44.0%▬
43.5%
41.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2011 | 2 | 12:27 | Defensive | Stephane Da Costa |
| Nov 11, 2011 | 1 | 11:19 | Defensive | Stephane Da Costa |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 2 | 02:51 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 2 | 02:44 | Defensive | Stephane Da Costa |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 1 | 11:26 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 1 | 05:57 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |