Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.0% vs 48.9%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ellis 48.5% vs Smith 49.0% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Ellis leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Ellis 55.1%
Defensive zone
Smith 62.3%
Neutral zone
Ellis 51.5%
Result
Zack Smith favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Ellis
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Ellis
Smith
Last 10: Ellis 6-4 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
1
0
Ellis
Smith
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Ellis
Smith
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Ellis
Smith
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ellis
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (223)
48.0% (761)
+0.0%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
70.4% (27)
-70.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (20)
49.5% (196)
+0.5%
On power play, Smith has a +70.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Ellis is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (161).
Ellis shoots left. Smith is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Ellis
Smith
Home
51.4% (107)
49.9% (523)
Away
45.3% (137)
47.8% (467)
By Period
Ellis
Smith
P1
46.7%
47.5%
P2
47.3%
50.4%
P3
50.8%
48.4%
Final 5 min
43.9%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2012 | 2 | 11:42 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 2 | 07:05 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 3 | 18:31 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 3 | 18:14 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 3 | 07:59 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 1 | 17:46 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Nov 11, 2011 | 3 | 11:22 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Nov 11, 2011 | 3 | 04:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Nov 11, 2011 | 2 | 01:31 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Nov 11, 2011 | 2 | 01:24 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 3 | 17:55 | Defensive | Zack Smith |