Scouting Report
Zack Smith holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ellis 46.8% vs Smith 50.6% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Smith leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Smith 54.9%
Defensive zone
Smith 54.9%
Neutral zone
Ellis 53.3%
Result
Zack Smith favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Ellis
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Ellis
Smith
Last 10: Ellis 6-4 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
1
0
Ellis
Smith
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Ellis
Smith
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
3
4
Ellis
Smith
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ellis
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (607)
51.6% (5,265)
-4.3%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
51.2% (342)
-22.6%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (95)
45.3% (985)
-3.2%
On power play, Smith has a +22.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Ellis is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (460).
Ellis shoots left. Smith is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (4,205).
Home / Away
Ellis
Smith
Home
48.5% (303)
52.5% (3,289)
Away
44.8% (406)
48.7% (3,310)
By Period
Ellis
Smith
P1
50.0%
49.9%
P2
46.2%
50.0%
P3
41.3%
51.9%
OT
100.0%
51.6%
Final 5 min
42.4%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
46.4%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2012 | 2 | 11:42 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 2 | 07:05 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 3 | 18:31 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 3 | 18:14 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 3 | 07:59 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 1 | 17:46 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Nov 11, 2011 | 3 | 11:22 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Nov 11, 2011 | 3 | 04:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Nov 11, 2011 | 2 | 01:31 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Nov 11, 2011 | 2 | 01:24 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 3 | 17:55 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 25, 2011 | 3 | 04:02 | Neutral | Zack Smith |