Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.5% vs 44.9%). Savoie wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Savoie 48.2% vs Cates 45.5% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Savoie 64.9%
Defensive zone
Savoie 63.6%
Neutral zone
Savoie 62.5%
Result
Matt Savoie favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
Savoie
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Savoie
Cates
Last 5: Savoie 4-1 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Savoie
1
0
Savoie
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Savoie
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Savoie
2
0
Savoie
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Savoie
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (53)
45.4% (712)
+1.8%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
42.2% (102)
+32.8%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
44.7% (47)
-22.5%
On power play, Savoie has a +32.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Savoie is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (54).
Savoie shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Savoie
Cates
Home
51.9% (27)
46.3% (423)
Away
41.0% (39)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Savoie
Cates
P1
40.0%
46.3%
P2
40.0%
47.1%
P3
52.0%
42.1%
OT
100.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
44.4%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Savoie
50.0%▲
47.2%
45.5%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 18:50 | Neutral | Matt Savoie |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 14:38 | Neutral | Matt Savoie |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 00:13 | Offensive | Matt Savoie |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 00:07 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 1 | 00:21 | Defensive | Matt Savoie |