Scouting Report
Matt Savoie holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Savoie wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Savoie 48.8% vs Cates 43.2% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Savoie 87.3%
Defensive zone
Savoie 55.0%
Neutral zone
Savoie 73.0%
Result
Matt Savoie favored at 68.6%
68.6%
31.4%
Savoie
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Savoie
Cates
Last 5: Savoie 4-1 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Savoie
1
0
Savoie
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Savoie
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Savoie
2
0
Savoie
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Savoie
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (59)
44.1% (2,742)
+5.1%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
43.0% (242)
+32.0%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
34.9% (373)
-12.7%
On power play, Savoie has a +32.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Savoie is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (58).
Savoie shoots right. Cates is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,073).
Home / Away
Savoie
Cates
Home
56.3% (32)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
40.0% (40)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Savoie
Cates
P1
45.5%
44.5%
P2
40.9%
43.5%
P3
51.9%
41.2%
OT
100.0%
29.4%
Final 5 min
42.9%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Savoie
50.0%▲
47.2%
47.2%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 18:50 | Neutral | Matt Savoie |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 14:38 | Neutral | Matt Savoie |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 00:13 | Offensive | Matt Savoie |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 00:07 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 1 | 00:21 | Defensive | Matt Savoie |