Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 20 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stajan 49.4% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 27-22 in 49 meetings
Offensive zone
Stajan 59.0%
Defensive zone
Stajan 77.4%
Neutral zone
Stajan 66.1%
Result
Matt Stajan favored at 67.3%
67.3%
32.7%
Stajan
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
27
(49 meetings)
22
27
Stajan
O'Reilly
Last 10: Stajan 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
8
12
Stajan
O'Reilly
20 total
Defensive Zone
Even
9
9
Stajan
O'Reilly
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
6
Stajan
O'Reilly
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stajan
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (4,944)
56.2% (15,260)
-6.0%
Power Play
43.2% (176)
58.8% (3,445)
-15.6%
Penalty Kill
46.1% (864)
51.4% (2,811)
-5.3%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Stajan is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,964).
Stajan shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Stajan
O'Reilly
Home
51.3% (3,098)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
47.3% (2,892)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Stajan
O'Reilly
P1
50.3%
55.6%
P2
48.5%
57.0%
P3
49.4%
55.1%
OT
53.3%
62.2%
Final 5 min
49.9%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stajan
50.0%▬
49.5%
49.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2018 | 3 | 05:54 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Mar 7, 2018 | 3 | 05:36 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2018 | 3 | 02:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2018 | 2 | 17:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2018 | 2 | 12:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2018 | 1 | 18:27 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 2 | 19:53 | Offensive | Matt Stajan |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 1 | 11:30 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Dec 10, 2015 | 3 | 04:41 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 10, 2015 | 2 | 15:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 10, 2015 | 2 | 03:03 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Mar 23, 2015 | 3 | 05:39 | Offensive | Matt Stajan |
| Mar 23, 2015 | 1 | 12:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 23, 2015 | 1 | 11:58 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 2 | 08:42 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Jan 6, 2014 | 2 | 02:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2014 | 1 | 05:37 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Nov 8, 2013 | 2 | 02:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 1 | 15:43 | Offensive | Matt Stajan |