Scouting Report
Matt Stajan holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Smyth on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stajan wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Smyth shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stajan 46.7% vs Smyth 45.4% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smyth 69.0%
Defensive zone
Stajan 60.3%
Neutral zone
Smyth 51.3%
Result
Ryan Smyth favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Stajan
Smyth
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Stajan
Smyth
Last 7: Stajan 3-4 Smyth
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smyth
0
3
Stajan
Smyth
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stajan
2
1
Stajan
Smyth
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stajan
1
0
Stajan
Smyth
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stajan
Smyth
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (615)
43.2% (155)
+3.5%
Power Play
52.9% (17)
50.0% (28)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (138)
31.6% (19)
+11.9%
On penalty kill, Stajan has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smyth shoots left. Stajan is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (576).
Stajan shoots left. Smyth is 41.0% vs left-shot opponents (139).
Home / Away
Stajan
Smyth
Home
45.6% (379)
42.2% (102)
Away
46.8% (391)
44.0% (100)
By Period
Stajan
Smyth
P1
44.2%
50.8%
P2
46.9%
41.3%
P3
47.7%
39.0%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
41.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stajan
50.0%▬
49.5%
46.2%
Smyth
50.0%▬
50.5%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2013 | 3 | 18:54 | Offensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Apr 3, 2013 | 3 | 18:44 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Apr 3, 2013 | 3 | 15:57 | Offensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Apr 3, 2013 | 3 | 15:53 | Offensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Apr 1, 2013 | 3 | 15:33 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Apr 1, 2013 | 2 | 12:26 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Apr 1, 2013 | 2 | 03:33 | Defensive | Ryan Smyth |