Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.2% vs 50.1%). Look for Peca on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Peca wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Rask shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Peca 50.2% vs Rask 50.1% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rask 72.9%
Defensive zone
Peca 56.0%
Neutral zone
Rask 57.5%
Result
Victor Rask favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Peca
Rask
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Peca
Rask
Last 6: Peca 4-2 Rask
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Peca
Rask
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Peca
1
0
Peca
Rask
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Peca
2
1
Peca
Rask
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Peca
Rask
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (423)
50.0% (4,428)
+1.5%
Power Play
12.5% (8)
54.3% (363)
-41.8%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (43)
35.2% (54)
+9.0%
On power play, Rask has a +41.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rask shoots left. Peca is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Peca shoots left. Rask is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,102).
Home / Away
Peca
Rask
Home
46.1% (193)
52.0% (2,380)
Away
53.0% (281)
48.3% (2,465)
By Period
Peca
Rask
P1
56.6%
50.7%
P2
44.4%
48.9%
P3
50.3%
50.7%
OT
0.0%
52.1%
Final 5 min
48.4%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Peca
46.0%▼
49.5%
50.2%
Rask
60.0%▲
49.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2016 | 3 | 16:13 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 31, 2016 | 3 | 14:03 | Defensive | Matthew Peca |
| Dec 31, 2016 | 3 | 10:44 | Neutral | Matthew Peca |
| Dec 31, 2016 | 3 | 03:12 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Dec 31, 2016 | 2 | 09:27 | Offensive | Matthew Peca |
| Dec 31, 2016 | 1 | 07:35 | Neutral | Matthew Peca |