Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Poitras wins 39.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Poitras 45.5% vs Johansen 52.8% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Poitras 62.3%
Defensive zone
Johansen 53.8%
Neutral zone
Poitras 55.9%
Result
Matthew Poitras favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Poitras
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Poitras
Johansen
Last 5: Poitras 2-3 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Poitras
1
0
Poitras
Johansen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
2
Poitras
Johansen
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Poitras
Johansen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Poitras
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (245)
51.9% (597)
-8.6%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
57.9% (133)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (3)
54.3% (81)
+12.4%
On penalty kill, Poitras has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Poitras is 39.5% vs right-shot opponents (86).
Poitras shoots right. Johansen is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Home / Away
Poitras
Johansen
Home
44.6% (121)
55.8% (387)
Away
42.9% (133)
50.7% (424)
By Period
Poitras
Johansen
P1
41.5%
50.0%
P2
45.4%
56.2%
P3
44.4%
52.6%
Final 5 min
40.0%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Poitras
42.0%▼
44.5%
43.7%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2024 | 3 | 12:08 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 2 | 17:56 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 2 | 10:05 | Neutral | Matthew Poitras |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 1 | 03:53 | Offensive | Matthew Poitras |
| Jan 8, 2024 | 1 | 03:41 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |