Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Bedard wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — Beniers shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 39.8% vs Beniers 47.8% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 70.1%
Defensive zone
Bedard 69.7%
Neutral zone
Bedard 69.7%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 69.8%
69.8%
30.2%
Bedard
Beniers
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Bedard
Beniers
Last 6: Bedard 1-5 Beniers
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
0
1
Bedard
Beniers
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
0
1
Bedard
Beniers
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beniers
1
3
Bedard
Beniers
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Beniers
Edge
Even Strength
38.0% (618)
48.3% (1,050)
-10.3%
Power Play
38.7% (31)
42.9% (105)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
43.6% (39)
+13.5%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beniers shoots left. Bedard is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Bedard shoots right. Beniers is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (373).
Home / Away
Bedard
Beniers
Home
40.5% (316)
48.7% (630)
Away
36.2% (340)
46.5% (564)
By Period
Bedard
Beniers
P1
37.2%
49.2%
P2
36.9%
45.0%
P3
40.7%
49.3%
OT
50.0%
22.2%
Final 5 min
43.4%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.3%
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 14:11 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 14:09 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 00:30 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 19:40 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1 | 07:17 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |