Mavrik Bourque vs Pavel Buchnevich
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mavrik Bourque holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Buchnevich on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Bourque wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.7% vs Buchnevich 42.1% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 81.0%
Defensive zone
Buchnevich 69.2%
Neutral zone
Buchnevich 69.5%
Result
Pavel Buchnevich favored at 73.3%
26.7%
73.3%
Bourque
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Bourque
Buchnevich
Last 6: Bourque 1-5 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
0
2
Bourque
Buchnevich
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
1
3
Bourque
Buchnevich
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (181)
37.7% (154)
+9.3%
Power Play
25.0% (16)
42.9% (14)
-17.9%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
30.0% (10)
+12.9%
On power play, Buchnevich has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Bourque is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Bourque shoots right. Buchnevich is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (71).
Home / Away
Bourque
Buchnevich
Home
41.9% (105)
37.4% (91)
Away
48.5% (99)
37.9% (87)
By Period
Bourque
Buchnevich
P1
39.7%
38.9%
P2
39.3%
31.5%
P3
52.9%
42.0%
Final 5 min
44.2%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.1%
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
37.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 07:49 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 09:14 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 11:45 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |