Mavrik Bourque vs Pavel Buchnevich
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mavrik Bourque holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Buchnevich on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Bourque wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.4% vs Buchnevich 35.4% (+11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 86.1%
Defensive zone
Buchnevich 69.6%
Neutral zone
Buchnevich 77.9%
Result
Pavel Buchnevich favored at 80.7%
19.3%
80.7%
Bourque
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Bourque
Buchnevich
Last 6: Bourque 1-5 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
0
2
Bourque
Buchnevich
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
1
3
Bourque
Buchnevich
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (508)
33.7% (895)
+13.0%
Power Play
27.3% (22)
44.2% (52)
-16.9%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (28)
24.3% (37)
+18.6%
On penalty kill, Bourque has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Bourque is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Bourque shoots right. Buchnevich is 36.1% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Home / Away
Bourque
Buchnevich
Home
47.3% (262)
34.7% (490)
Away
44.3% (296)
33.2% (494)
By Period
Bourque
Buchnevich
P1
42.4%
34.4%
P2
42.9%
33.7%
P3
50.7%
33.4%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.0%
37.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.7%
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
33.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 07:49 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 09:14 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 11:45 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |