Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Talbot on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Talbot wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Talbot 47.0% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-10.8%)
H2H factor
Talbot leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Gaustad 51.9%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 78.7%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 74.7%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 74.0%
26.0%
74.0%
Talbot
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Talbot
Gaustad
Last 10: Talbot 6-4 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Talbot
1
0
Talbot
Gaustad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Talbot
Gaustad
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Talbot
3
2
Talbot
Gaustad
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Talbot
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (1,738)
58.2% (4,334)
-9.9%
Power Play
49.0% (51)
65.4% (188)
-16.4%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (631)
54.8% (1,290)
-12.5%
On power play, Gaustad has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Talbot is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,539).
Talbot shoots left. Gaustad is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,774).
Home / Away
Talbot
Gaustad
Home
48.0% (1,219)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
45.8% (1,215)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Talbot
Gaustad
P1
48.7%
58.2%
P2
43.5%
56.4%
P3
48.6%
58.3%
OT
45.0%
66.0%
Final 5 min
46.9%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Talbot
46.0%▲
43.5%
46.9%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2012 | 2 | 03:32 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 2, 2011 | 3 | 08:29 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 2, 2011 | 1 | 02:19 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 4, 2011 | 3 | 08:30 | Neutral | Max Talbot |
| Feb 4, 2011 | 3 | 04:21 | Neutral | Max Talbot |
| Feb 4, 2011 | 2 | 13:34 | Defensive | Max Talbot |
| Feb 4, 2011 | 2 | 09:13 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 4, 2011 | 1 | 15:34 | Offensive | Max Talbot |
| Dec 11, 2010 | 3 | 19:17 | Neutral | Max Talbot |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 3 | 08:26 | Defensive | Max Talbot |