Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Talbot wins 42.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Talbot 48.1% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Talbot 58.7%
Defensive zone
Talbot 69.1%
Neutral zone
Talbot 64.2%
Result
Max Talbot favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
Talbot
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Talbot
O'Reilly
Last 8: Talbot 3-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
5
Talbot
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Talbot
2
0
Talbot
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Talbot
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (285)
56.9% (1,203)
-7.4%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
60.2% (329)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (53)
50.4% (280)
-14.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Talbot is 42.3% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Talbot shoots left. O'Reilly is 59.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,111).
Home / Away
Talbot
O'Reilly
Home
47.8% (203)
58.6% (879)
Away
47.2% (142)
54.6% (933)
By Period
Talbot
O'Reilly
P1
52.5%
55.6%
P2
38.3%
57.9%
P3
52.3%
55.7%
OT
0.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Talbot
46.0%▲
43.5%
47.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2016 | 2 | 13:24 | Defensive | Max Talbot |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 1 | 19:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 1 | 19:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 1 | 04:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 4, 2016 | OT | 03:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 3 | 08:06 | Offensive | Max Talbot |
| Jan 15, 2016 | 3 | 02:04 | Defensive | Max Talbot |
| Jan 15, 2016 | 2 | 07:12 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |