Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.2% vs 52.1%). Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 55.0% vs right-shot opponents — Lapierre shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 50.9% vs Lapierre 51.7% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 64.2%
Defensive zone
Lapierre 93.2%
Neutral zone
Lapierre 64.5%
Result
Maxim Lapierre favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Duchene
Lapierre
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Duchene
Lapierre
Last 5: Duchene 5-0 Lapierre
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Lapierre
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Lapierre
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Lapierre
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (357)
51.2% (422)
-0.2%
Power Play
53.6% (28)
66.7% (6)
-13.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
57.4% (54)
-7.4%
On power play, Lapierre has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lapierre shoots right. Duchene is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Duchene shoots left. Lapierre is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Duchene
Lapierre
Home
51.0% (208)
54.4% (239)
Away
51.4% (183)
49.8% (243)
By Period
Duchene
Lapierre
P1
53.3%
49.4%
P2
53.4%
52.8%
P3
44.6%
54.2%
Final 5 min
56.5%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
51.2%
Lapierre
56.0%▬
55.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2012 | 2 | 15:55 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 1 | 01:57 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2011 | 1 | 18:34 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 23, 2011 | 2 | 12:37 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 23, 2011 | 2 | 12:20 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |