Michael McCarron vs Sebastian Aho
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 55.3%). Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). McCarron wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 54.0% vs Aho 54.9% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 90.4%
Defensive zone
McCarron 86.4%
Neutral zone
Aho 54.8%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 74.4%
25.6%
74.4%
McCarron
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
McCarron
Aho
Last 7: McCarron 3-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
4
McCarron
Aho
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
0
McCarron
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
0
McCarron
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (756)
54.5% (870)
-0.3%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
62.4% (266)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (158)
37.1% (62)
+18.0%
On penalty kill, McCarron has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McCarron is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (674).
McCarron shoots right. Aho is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
McCarron
Aho
Home
54.6% (445)
53.9% (603)
Away
54.2% (478)
56.8% (595)
By Period
McCarron
Aho
P1
53.6%
54.1%
P2
55.6%
55.0%
P3
53.7%
57.4%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.5%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.4%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:08 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 10:48 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 07:31 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 07:18 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:15 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 06:51 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 10:31 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |