Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Smith wins 43.5% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 45.2% vs Backlund 46.1% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 65.2%
Defensive zone
Backlund 82.2%
Neutral zone
Backlund 56.7%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Smith
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Smith
Backlund
Last 5: Smith 3-2 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
2
0
Smith
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Smith
Backlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Smith
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (332)
45.9% (410)
-1.0%
Power Play
38.9% (54)
44.8% (29)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
42.9% (56)
+7.1%
On penalty kill, Smith has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Smith is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (292).
Smith shoots right. Backlund is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (190).
Home / Away
Smith
Backlund
Home
46.1% (167)
49.3% (217)
Away
42.5% (226)
42.3% (279)
By Period
Smith
Backlund
P1
42.1%
44.0%
P2
43.4%
49.4%
P3
47.0%
42.8%
OT
50.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
42.6%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
30.0%▼
44.0%
44.0%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2012 | 2 | 16:54 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 1, 2012 | 1 | 12:52 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 1 | 02:24 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Nov 29, 2011 | 2 | 16:14 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 29, 2011 | 1 | 18:50 | Neutral | Craig Smith |