Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Spezza wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 53.3% vs Backlund 46.1% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 50.4%
Defensive zone
Backlund 85.6%
Neutral zone
Backlund 68.0%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 79.7%
20.3%
79.7%
Spezza
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Spezza
Backlund
Last 6: Spezza 2-4 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
3
Spezza
Backlund
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (1,283)
45.9% (410)
+7.9%
Power Play
52.8% (303)
44.8% (29)
+8.0%
Penalty Kill
49.4% (89)
42.9% (56)
+6.5%
On power play, Spezza has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Spezza is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,197).
Spezza shoots right. Backlund is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (190).
Home / Away
Spezza
Backlund
Home
56.4% (853)
49.3% (217)
Away
50.5% (847)
42.3% (279)
By Period
Spezza
Backlund
P1
53.4%
44.0%
P2
54.2%
49.4%
P3
53.4%
42.8%
OT
44.4%
40.0%
Final 5 min
52.7%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Backlund
44.0%▬
44.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2011 | OT | 02:01 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 30, 2011 | 1 | 06:25 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 15, 2011 | 3 | 15:31 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 15, 2011 | 2 | 16:12 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 15, 2011 | 2 | 14:08 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 15, 2011 | 2 | 14:02 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |