Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 57.4% vs Backlund 48.1% (+10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 50.5%
Defensive zone
Backlund 55.3%
Neutral zone
Backlund 55.2%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Thornton
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Thornton
Backlund
Last 5: Thornton 2-3 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Thornton
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (540)
47.3% (357)
+9.7%
Power Play
64.0% (111)
55.0% (40)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
62.0% (50)
30.0% (10)
+32.0%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +32.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Thornton is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (478).
Thornton shoots left. Backlund is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Thornton
Backlund
Home
56.7% (353)
45.0% (211)
Away
60.3% (348)
50.5% (196)
By Period
Thornton
Backlund
P1
59.3%
47.6%
P2
60.1%
53.0%
P3
57.1%
41.2%
OT
47.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
58.0%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.5%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2013 | 3 | 15:07 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 20, 2013 | 3 | 09:20 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 20, 2013 | 2 | 19:36 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 20, 2013 | 2 | 19:28 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 20, 2013 | 2 | 05:35 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |