Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Backlund wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.3% vs Johansen 52.8% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 63.0%
Defensive zone
Backlund 69.6%
Neutral zone
Backlund 53.3%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Backlund
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Backlund
Johansen
Last 6: Backlund 3-3 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
3
Backlund
Johansen
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
0
Backlund
Johansen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (1,205)
51.9% (597)
-0.9%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
57.9% (133)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (234)
54.3% (81)
-12.0%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Backlund is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (535).
Backlund shoots left. Johansen is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (584).
Home / Away
Backlund
Johansen
Home
51.2% (782)
55.8% (387)
Away
49.4% (765)
50.7% (424)
By Period
Backlund
Johansen
P1
51.5%
50.0%
P2
49.8%
56.2%
P3
49.9%
52.6%
OT
37.5%
75.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3 | 12:18 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 1 | 07:12 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 18:21 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 05:22 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 1 | 05:23 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 1 | 05:03 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |