Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 22 meetings). Ribeiro wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ribeiro 43.2% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-12.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 35-22 in 57 meetings
Offensive zone
Ribeiro 89.6%
Defensive zone
Ribeiro 81.6%
Neutral zone
Ribeiro 94.3%
Result
Mike Ribeiro favored at 88.1%
88.1%
11.9%
Ribeiro
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
35
(57 meetings)
22
35
Ribeiro
O'Reilly
Last 10: Ribeiro 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ribeiro
12
4
Ribeiro
O'Reilly
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
18
Ribeiro
O'Reilly
22 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
6
13
Ribeiro
O'Reilly
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ribeiro
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
42.9% (4,887)
56.2% (15,260)
-13.3%
Power Play
45.6% (930)
58.8% (3,445)
-13.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (147)
51.4% (2,811)
-18.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Ribeiro is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,885).
Ribeiro shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Ribeiro
O'Reilly
Home
44.1% (3,144)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
41.9% (2,837)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Ribeiro
O'Reilly
P1
42.6%
55.6%
P2
44.3%
57.0%
P3
41.8%
55.1%
OT
49.0%
62.2%
Final 5 min
41.6%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ribeiro
34.0%▼
36.0%
43.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2017 | 3 | 11:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 24, 2017 | 3 | 06:21 | Offensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Jan 24, 2017 | 3 | 06:18 | Offensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Nov 28, 2015 | 3 | 06:21 | Neutral | Mike Ribeiro |
| Nov 28, 2015 | 2 | 10:13 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 3 | 08:42 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 2 | 12:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 1 | 15:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2015 | 1 | 08:01 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 3 | 19:02 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 3 | 07:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 3 | 04:25 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 2 | 19:05 | Offensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 2 | 06:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 2 | 05:28 | Offensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mike Ribeiro |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 1 | 05:02 | Neutral | Mike Ribeiro |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 1 | 02:42 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 7, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 30, 2015 | 2 | 18:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |