Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 51.6% vs Richards 49.2% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 61.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 65.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 64.0%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 64.1%
64.1%
35.9%
Pavelski
Richards
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Pavelski
Richards
Last 6: Pavelski 4-2 Richards
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Richards
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Richards
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Richards
0
2
Pavelski
Richards
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Richards
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (480)
50.0% (370)
+0.4%
Power Play
51.5% (97)
50.0% (30)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
60.2% (83)
39.0% (41)
+21.2%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +21.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Richards shoots left. Pavelski is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (490).
Pavelski shoots right. Richards is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (121).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Richards
Home
53.1% (311)
52.3% (214)
Away
50.7% (349)
45.8% (227)
By Period
Pavelski
Richards
P1
55.4%
47.3%
P2
49.6%
53.2%
P3
51.7%
46.3%
OT
36.4%
60.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
46.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.8%
Richards
58.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 13:21 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 01:39 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 16, 2013 | 2 | 15:05 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 14, 2013 | 3 | 10:46 | Neutral | Mike Richards |
| Mar 14, 2013 | 2 | 15:59 | Neutral | Mike Richards |
| Mar 14, 2013 | 1 | 08:31 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |