Scouting Report
Mikko Koivu holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Koivu on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 43.7% vs Koivu 54.5% (-12.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 67.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 66.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 68.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 67.7%
67.7%
32.3%
Nelson
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Nelson
Koivu
Last 8: Nelson 2-6 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Koivu
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Koivu
0
1
Nelson
Koivu
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Koivu
0
4
Nelson
Koivu
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
42.1% (385)
54.0% (948)
-11.9%
Power Play
47.5% (40)
58.7% (225)
-11.2%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (26)
54.3% (138)
-15.8%
On penalty kill, Koivu has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Nelson is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (255).
Nelson shoots left. Koivu is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Home / Away
Nelson
Koivu
Home
43.8% (224)
59.8% (669)
Away
41.0% (227)
49.7% (642)
By Period
Nelson
Koivu
P1
48.1%
53.4%
P2
38.4%
56.2%
P3
39.2%
56.3%
OT
75.0%
36.7%
Final 5 min
41.4%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
42.4%
Koivu
44.0%▼
52.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 2 | 16:54 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 1 | 16:37 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 1 | 13:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 1 | 11:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 29, 2013 | 3 | 02:40 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |