Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Koivu on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Thornton wins 59.3% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 57.3% vs Koivu 54.9% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Koivu leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Koivu 68.2%
Defensive zone
Koivu 60.7%
Neutral zone
Koivu 64.4%
Result
Mikko Koivu favored at 66.3%
33.7%
66.3%
Thornton
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Thornton
Koivu
Last 10: Thornton 3-7 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Koivu
1
6
Thornton
Koivu
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
0
Thornton
Koivu
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Koivu
0
1
Thornton
Koivu
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (722)
55.3% (1,268)
+3.4%
Power Play
58.5% (147)
57.6% (321)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
51.0% (202)
+0.2%
On even strength, Thornton has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Thornton is 59.3% vs left-shot opponents (528).
Thornton shoots left. Koivu is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,084).
Home / Away
Thornton
Koivu
Home
60.1% (496)
58.3% (906)
Away
55.8% (459)
52.1% (885)
By Period
Thornton
Koivu
P1
60.4%
53.0%
P2
54.7%
55.6%
P3
58.2%
56.6%
OT
61.5%
64.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.0%
Koivu
44.0%▼
52.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2014 | 3 | 11:13 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 3 | 04:31 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 2 | 12:27 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 2 | 09:10 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 1 | 12:34 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 30, 2014 | OT | 03:58 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 30, 2014 | 3 | 05:13 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 30, 2014 | 2 | 03:15 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 30, 2014 | 1 | 17:15 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 30, 2014 | 1 | 10:58 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |