Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 54.6%). Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.2% vs Koivu 54.1% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 62.8%
Defensive zone
Koivu 53.0%
Neutral zone
Koivu 56.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 59.6%
59.6%
40.4%
Tavares
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Tavares
Koivu
Last 5: Tavares 4-1 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
Koivu
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Koivu
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (1,201)
55.1% (672)
-2.1%
Power Play
61.5% (262)
56.5% (115)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (65)
49.5% (107)
+4.3%
On power play, Tavares has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Tavares is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Tavares shoots left. Koivu is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Tavares
Koivu
Home
57.5% (762)
56.6% (410)
Away
51.4% (766)
52.9% (484)
By Period
Tavares
Koivu
P1
54.5%
51.7%
P2
53.2%
56.7%
P3
55.5%
55.3%
OT
60.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.3%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.5%
Koivu
44.0%▼
52.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2019 | 3 | 19:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2019 | 3 | 18:35 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2019 | 3 | 18:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 3 | 18:19 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 1 | 15:31 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |