Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 39 meetings). Koivu wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Koivu 54.0% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 55-48 in 103 meetings
Offensive zone
Koivu 87.1%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 70.7%
Neutral zone
Koivu 55.1%
Result
Mikko Koivu favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Koivu
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
48
-
55
(103 meetings)
48
55
Koivu
Gaustad
Last 10: Koivu 6-4 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Koivu
31
7
Koivu
Gaustad
38 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
3
36
Koivu
Gaustad
39 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Koivu
14
12
Koivu
Gaustad
26 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Koivu
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,465)
58.2% (4,334)
-4.2%
Power Play
58.6% (2,100)
65.4% (188)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (1,688)
54.8% (1,290)
-5.9%
On power play, Gaustad has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Koivu is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,701).
Koivu shoots left. Gaustad is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,774).
Home / Away
Koivu
Gaustad
Home
55.8% (6,577)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
52.3% (6,719)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Koivu
Gaustad
P1
53.5%
58.2%
P2
54.6%
56.4%
P3
54.0%
58.3%
OT
56.5%
66.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Koivu
44.0%▼
52.5%
54.1%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2016 | 3 | 03:11 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 2 | 13:03 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 1 | 19:12 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 1 | 10:58 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 19, 2015 | 3 | 08:31 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 19, 2015 | 2 | 19:48 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 3 | 01:21 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 3 | 19:51 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 3 | 19:38 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 3 | 19:21 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 3 | 19:18 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 3 | 18:45 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 3 | 18:21 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 3 | 07:54 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 3 | 06:14 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 2 | 02:43 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 1 | 10:21 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 9, 2015 | 3 | 19:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 9, 2015 | 3 | 17:04 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 9, 2015 | 3 | 00:06 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |