Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Koivu on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Koivu wins 55.3% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Koivu 54.9% vs Kesler 56.0% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Koivu leads 14-8 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Koivu 51.4%
Defensive zone
Kesler 70.5%
Neutral zone
Kesler 54.8%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
Koivu
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
8
(22 meetings)
14
8
Koivu
Kesler
Last 10: Koivu 5-5 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Koivu
6
4
Koivu
Kesler
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Koivu
4
3
Koivu
Kesler
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Koivu
4
1
Koivu
Kesler
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Koivu
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (1,268)
57.4% (1,185)
-2.1%
Power Play
57.6% (321)
58.0% (243)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (202)
49.2% (236)
+1.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Koivu is 55.3% vs right-shot opponents (707).
Koivu shoots left. Kesler is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,075).
Home / Away
Koivu
Kesler
Home
58.3% (906)
58.5% (793)
Away
52.1% (885)
54.3% (871)
By Period
Koivu
Kesler
P1
53.0%
57.0%
P2
55.6%
55.4%
P3
56.6%
56.7%
OT
64.0%
54.8%
Final 5 min
54.7%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Koivu
44.0%▼
52.5%
55.2%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2015 | 3 | 19:34 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 13, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Mar 13, 2015 | 2 | 14:38 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Mar 13, 2015 | 2 | 08:44 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 13, 2015 | 1 | 17:04 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Mar 13, 2015 | 1 | 12:52 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 13, 2015 | 1 | 00:18 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 5, 2014 | 3 | 19:19 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 5, 2014 | 2 | 18:47 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 5, 2014 | 2 | 15:31 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 5, 2014 | 2 | 09:59 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 5, 2014 | 2 | 09:55 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 5, 2014 | 2 | 03:57 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 5, 2014 | 1 | 19:17 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 5, 2014 | 1 | 16:17 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 5, 2014 | 1 | 09:40 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 5, 2014 | 1 | 04:17 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 5, 2014 | 1 | 04:09 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 17, 2014 | 2 | 10:18 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 17, 2014 | 1 | 15:49 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |