Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Marner wins 40.9% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 43.1% vs Poehling 47.4% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 83.7%
Defensive zone
Poehling 71.9%
Neutral zone
Marner 50.4%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Marner
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Marner
Poehling
Last 5: Marner 2-3 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
1
0
Marner
Poehling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
1
2
Marner
Poehling
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
1
Marner
Poehling
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
41.5% (282)
49.8% (626)
-8.3%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
58.3% (12)
-18.3%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
38.2% (207)
-13.2%
On power play, Poehling has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Marner is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Marner shoots right. Poehling is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Marner
Poehling
Home
36.1% (158)
47.3% (404)
Away
46.1% (141)
46.9% (441)
By Period
Marner
Poehling
P1
41.6%
53.5%
P2
40.2%
39.4%
P3
40.5%
49.1%
Final 5 min
41.2%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
40.8%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:47 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 13:21 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:28 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |