Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Marner wins 40.1% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 43.1% vs Poehling 48.1% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 81.6%
Defensive zone
Poehling 59.7%
Neutral zone
Marner 53.3%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Marner
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Marner
Poehling
Last 5: Marner 2-3 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
1
0
Marner
Poehling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
1
2
Marner
Poehling
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
1
Marner
Poehling
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
42.2% (462)
49.4% (2,726)
-7.2%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
51.6% (93)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (65)
41.6% (623)
-6.2%
On even strength, Poehling has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Marner is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (372).
Marner shoots right. Poehling is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,141).
Home / Away
Marner
Poehling
Home
38.2% (293)
49.3% (1,688)
Away
46.0% (252)
46.9% (1,754)
By Period
Marner
Poehling
P1
39.1%
50.9%
P2
41.1%
47.0%
P3
47.1%
46.9%
OT
40.0%
37.9%
Final 5 min
47.5%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
41.8%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:47 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 13:21 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:28 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |