Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Marner wins 40.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 43.1% vs Johnston 48.5% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 61.5%
Defensive zone
Johnston 77.6%
Neutral zone
Johnston 75.7%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 73.6%
26.4%
73.6%
Marner
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Marner
Johnston
Last 6: Marner 4-2 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
1
0
Marner
Johnston
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Marner
Johnston
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
3
1
Marner
Johnston
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
41.5% (282)
47.8% (623)
-6.3%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
50.8% (63)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
51.4% (35)
-26.4%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +26.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Marner is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (79).
Marner shoots right. Johnston is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Marner
Johnston
Home
36.1% (158)
47.6% (351)
Away
46.1% (141)
48.9% (370)
By Period
Marner
Johnston
P1
41.6%
49.6%
P2
40.2%
47.3%
P3
40.5%
48.0%
Final 5 min
41.2%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
40.8%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 08:31 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 06:45 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 00:31 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 13:14 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 06:26 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 06:17 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |