Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Marner wins 45.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 43.1% vs Johnston 49.1% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 62.2%
Defensive zone
Johnston 84.3%
Neutral zone
Johnston 80.0%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 77.7%
22.3%
77.7%
Marner
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Marner
Johnston
Last 6: Marner 4-2 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
1
0
Marner
Johnston
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Marner
Johnston
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
3
1
Marner
Johnston
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
42.2% (462)
49.3% (2,189)
-7.1%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
52.6% (173)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (65)
44.7% (237)
-9.3%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Marner is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (173).
Marner shoots right. Johnston is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Marner
Johnston
Home
38.2% (293)
49.2% (1,319)
Away
46.0% (252)
49.0% (1,280)
By Period
Marner
Johnston
P1
39.1%
50.1%
P2
41.1%
48.3%
P3
47.1%
48.8%
OT
40.0%
51.6%
Final 5 min
47.5%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
41.8%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 08:31 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 06:45 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 00:31 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 13:14 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 06:26 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 06:17 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |