Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 53.4% vs Frost 46.2% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 53.9%
Defensive zone
Stepan 72.9%
Neutral zone
Stepan 55.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 64.1%
64.1%
35.9%
Stepan
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Stepan
Frost
Last 5: Stepan 3-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Stepan
Frost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Frost
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Stepan
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (358)
45.6% (833)
+9.7%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
46.0% (100)
-46.0%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (61)
55.6% (18)
-4.8%
On power play, Frost has a +46.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Stepan shoots right. Frost is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
Stepan
Frost
Home
57.7% (213)
47.0% (440)
Away
50.7% (209)
44.8% (511)
By Period
Stepan
Frost
P1
56.3%
42.5%
P2
48.9%
47.9%
P3
57.1%
46.6%
Final 5 min
57.6%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
45.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 13:55 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 06:44 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 05:12 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 14:21 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 06:08 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |