Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kirkland wins 40.4% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kirkland 46.0% vs Frost 51.1% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kirkland 51.8%
Defensive zone
Kirkland 88.7%
Neutral zone
Kirkland 72.0%
Result
Justin Kirkland favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
Kirkland
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Kirkland
Frost
Last 5: Kirkland 1-4 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
3
Kirkland
Frost
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Kirkland
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kirkland
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
45.1% (113)
50.3% (825)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
23.1% (13)
50.0% (4)
-26.9%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +26.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Kirkland is 40.4% vs left-shot opponents (94).
Kirkland shoots left. Frost is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Home / Away
Kirkland
Frost
Home
42.5% (73)
50.7% (489)
Away
43.4% (53)
51.7% (544)
By Period
Kirkland
Frost
P1
55.0%
53.6%
P2
44.9%
47.8%
P3
27.0%
52.0%
Final 5 min
36.8%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kirkland
44.0%▼
46.5%
42.9%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 08:32 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 16:26 | Offensive | Justin Kirkland |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 16:14 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 10:20 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 10:14 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |